The largest low-cost airline in Europe warns that flight prices may rise significantly as early as next year if oil prices remain high. Ryanair is already cutting its winter schedule and even claims that some airlines may struggle to survive.
We have become accustomed to seeing flights across Europe at prices that once seemed almost unimaginable: 15, 20, or 30 euros one way. However, this era may be facing a change. Ryanair, one of the largest and most influential low-cost airlines in the world, has issued an unusual warning that short-haul flight prices in Europe could rise significantly during 2027.
The main reason is the surge in jet fuel prices, amid geopolitical tensions and concerns about oil supply disruptions. For airlines, fuel is one of the largest expenses, and any increase in its price could eventually be passed on to the ticket price paid by passengers.
Ryanair Begins Cutting Flights as Flight Prices Rise
Ryanair’s warning is not based solely on future forecasts. The airline has already decided to reduce its flight schedule during the winter months, which are typically considered weak and less profitable for airlines.
Ryanair has lowered its passenger forecast for the fiscal year ending in March 2027 from 216 million to 214 million passengers. Two million passengers may seem like a relatively small change for a company of its size, but it is a clear signal: when operating certain flights becomes too expensive, even a low-cost giant prefers to scale back operations.
The company estimates that this move could reduce its winter season losses by 70 to 100 million euros.
Jet Fuel Price Surged to About $140 per Barrel
According to data released by the company, the price of jet fuel has reached about $140 per barrel. Ryanair itself is currently in a relatively good position, having hedged about 80% of its fuel needs until March 2027 at a price of approximately $67 per barrel.
Fuel hedging is essentially an agreement that allows an airline to lock in the price it will pay in the future. This protects the airline from sharp price increases and allows for more accurate planning of flight costs.
However, even Ryanair has some fuel consumption that is not protected. Other airlines that have not hedged similarly, or have done so to a lesser extent, may find themselves much more exposed to high prices.
The Unusual Warning: Some Airlines May Not Survive
Ryanair did not stop at warning about rising ticket prices. The company claimed that if high oil prices continue until the summer of 2027, some competing airlines that have not prepared in advance may struggle to maintain their level of activity and might not even survive the upcoming winter season.
Fewer airlines and fewer flights also mean less competition. When seat availability decreases, the chances of finding tickets at rock-bottom prices diminish—especially during high-demand periods such as holidays, vacations, and weekends.
The concern is therefore about a dual process: airlines will have to pay more for fuel, and at the same time, some may reduce routes and frequencies. Both factors could push ticket prices upward.
Are Cheap Flights Really About to Disappear as Ryanair Flight Prices Climb?
It is still too early to write off low-cost flights. Even Ryanair itself does not foresee a halt in growth: the company estimates that between April and October, it will fly about 145 million passengers, an increase of more than 5% compared to the same period last year.
Additionally, ticket prices for August and September actually showed a moderate decrease compared to last year. This means that passengers can still find quite a few cheap flights, at least in the near term. The question where have the 20-euro flights gone and are they on their way back now receives an even more complex answer.
However, the warning mainly concerns the future. If oil prices remain high for extended periods, airlines will struggle to absorb the costs alone. In such a case, flight tickets at the extreme prices of a few euros may become rarer.
And What Does This Mean for the Israeli Traveler?
Ryanair does not currently present a separate forecast for the Israeli market, so it is impossible to determine that flights from Israel will increase by a certain rate. However, what happens in the European aviation market also affects Israeli travelers.
Many Israelis use low-cost airlines to reach destinations in Europe or to continue from there to additional destinations. If companies reduce their operations, cancel routes, or raise prices, the impact may also be felt in the search for cheap vacations from Israel. Even now, it is possible to see how low-cost prices from Israel have changed compared to the years when rock-bottom ticket prices were more common.
Additionally, the increase in fuel prices is not a problem unique to Ryanair. It affects all airlines, including regular and other low-cost carriers. The difference lies in the level of protection each company has purchased in advance and its ability to absorb the costs without raising prices.
Is It Worth Booking Now?
The warning does not mean that all flight tickets will immediately become more expensive or that travelers should rush to purchase every flight they see. Flight prices are influenced by many factors, including demand, competition, seasonality, exchange rates, and the number of available seats on each route.
However, for those who already know when and where they wish to fly in 2027, especially during peak periods, it is advisable to start monitoring prices earlier than usual. If the rise in fuel prices continues and more companies reduce operations, particularly cheap deals may disappear more quickly.
The Bottom Line
Cheap flights are still available, but Ryanair’s warning indicates that the market is beginning to feel the pressure on Ryanair flight prices. As long as fuel prices remain high, airlines will need to choose between absorbing losses, reducing flights, and raising prices.
It is not certain that the low-cost era is coming to an end, but it is certainly possible that rock-bottom priced tickets will become less common – and that the pursuit of truly cheap flights will become more challenging.
Source: The Guardian
Photo: Pixabay
